Page 147 - Data Science class 11
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The disadvantages of forecasting are:
                     • Forecasts are never 100% accurate
                     • It can be time-consuming and resource-intensive
                     • It can also be costly
                     • Forecasting can be dangerous
                     • Not every situation can be predicted
                     • Financial forecasting inefficiencies and lack of data credibility

               2.  Give some examples of observational study.
              Ans.  Some examples of observational study are as follows:
                     • Animals in their natural environment
                     • Human use of a specific company’s products or services.
                     • Erosion or natural movement of land
                     • Animals at zoo
                     • Humans being screened for a particular medical condition, such as cancer.
                     • Natural disasters such as cyclones, hurricanes etc.

               3.  Explain the two types observational studies.
              Ans.  Observation is a way of collecting data by watching behaviour, patterns, habits, events, or noting physical characteristics
                  in their natural setting. Observations can be overt (where everyone knows that they are being observed) or covert (no
                  one knows they are being observed and the observer is kept out of sight) The two types of observational studies are
                  as follows:
                     • Direct observation: In this type of observation, the information is collected using sensory organs. Through direct
                     observation, we can document activities, habits and physical aspects of a situation without depending on people’s
                     willingness or ability to respond correctly to questions.
                     • Indirect observation: In this type of observation, some data related to past behaviour or habits is used to infer
                     what occurred during an event.

               4.  What are the advantages and disadvantages of participant observation?
              Ans.  The advantages of participant observation are as follows:
                     • Some of the variables can be controlled by you by being part of the natural environment.

                     • Despite the fact that participants are aware you are part of the study, you can still observe them in their natural
                     environment.
                     • By using this observation method, you can prevent incorrect self-reporting of data.

                  The disadvantages of participant observation are as follows:
                     • It can be difficult to take notes openly as a market researcher without blowing your cover.
                     • If you can’t take notes openly, you will have to depend on memory or note-taking, and memory can sometimes be
                     faulty.

                     • If a researcher becomes overly involved in the research, he or she may lose objectivity. This could threaten the
                     validity of the study.

               5.  What can and cannot be forecasted?
              Ans.  Forecasting of events can be done accurately if there is enough historical data and strong model predictors. Also, the
                  predictability of an event or a quality depends on many factors like:
                     • Our understanding of the factors that contribute to it;

                     • Volume of data available;
                     • Whether the forecasts can have an impact on the things we are trying to forecasting.



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