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• Probability helps in predicting the outcomes of sports events by analysing historical data and other relevant
factors. For example, in football (soccer), the probability of a team winning can be calculated based on home
advantage, current form, and historical head-to-head results.
• Coaches and analysts use probability to predict a player's performance. For example, in basketball, the probability
of a player making a free throw can be estimated based on their past success rate.
• During games, coaches use probability models to make strategic decisions. For example, in football, when
a team scores a touchdown, they have a choice. They can either kick the ball for an easy point or try for a
more challenging two-point conversion by running or passing the ball into the end zone again. Coaches use
probability to decide which option gives them the best chance of scoring more points.
• Teams with players suited to the ground conditions may have a higher probability of winning. For example, if
the nature of the pitch favours batsmen or bowlers, can have a substantial impact.
Weather Forecasting
• Weather forecasters use probability to determine the likelihood of rain, wind,
snow, clouds, etc. on a given day in a specific area.
For example, forecasters may say things like “there is a 70% chance of rain today
between 4 PM and 6 PM” to indicate a medium to high likelihood of rain during
certain hours.
• Probability helps in understanding long-term climate patterns and changes.
For example, estimating the probability of extreme weather events under different
climate scenarios aids in planning and mitigation efforts.
Traffic Estimation
• People often use probability when they decide to drive to someplace. Vehicular
traffic flow is examined and an estimated vehicle waiting time in each direction
is estimated through probability.
• Based on the time of day, location in the city, weather conditions, etc. people tend
to make probability predictions about how bad traffic will be during a certain
time. For example, if you think there’s a 90% chance that traffic will be heavy from
6 PM to 7:30 PM in your vicinity then you may decide to wait during that time.
Finance
• Probability is used to assess the risk of investments and financial
decisions.
For example, calculating the probability of a stock’s return falling within
a certain range helps investors make informed decisions.
• Probability models help investors spread their investments across
different assets to reduce risk.
For example, by looking at the chances of returns for various investments,
investors can build a balanced portfolio.
• Probability is crucial in figuring out insurance costs and how policies are structured by various insurance agencies.
For example, actuaries use probability to predict events like accidents or natural disasters and set insurance
premiums based on those chances.
Maths for AI (Statistics & Probability) 309

